< How should I interpret the Burn Column? What does the % indicate...>
Yes, thanks for the interest... the way the sheet is set up now all the revenue('98), expense('98), and sales ('99 est.) numbers are ANNUAL. Therefore the "Burn" column (as it stands) is '98's Expenses-Revenues divided by cash on hand a/o Dec 31st '98. So Burns of 100% mean they're out of cash at years end! [I have to admit, I'm hoping to elicit some new numbers from those in the know as they dispute that their favorite bio is headed for the dustbin]
Now, the "Sales" numbers are estimates (currently mine) of annual recurring revenues (now '99's)... ie. sales of products for the most part, but in cases of long term contracts we can add that in (MLNM comes to mind).
Hope # 1: as these things mature (many companies are launching products now) we can get a handle on companies becoming cash flow neutral from quality, recurring revenues...not just the stub of some contract they signed 4 years ago.
Hope #2: many contributors/readers of the biothreads have BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THESE ISSUES THAN MYSELF or the anal-ists on wall street. I am hoping that everyone will participate in filling in the spreadsheet! My numbers are totally lame, most revenue/expense #'s are last years and full of one time milestones, expiring partnerships/non-recurring clinical expenses, and/or are missing new Pharma deals.... lets update with knowledgeable estimates!!! Try and get a sort of "normalized burn" to clarify the situation.
Next, lets add more columns, and or change what we have to make them more useful! I think even a column that shows at least current "face value" of outstanding partnerships may be useful because once we bite that off its only another incremental step to break them down further...perhaps next years expected milestones?... something useful may come out of it!
Finally, I now that there are lots of people that are VERY knowledgeable about these companies... and this is asking them to share "proprietary" information that they work hard (well, O.K. its a hobby right?) to obtain. But hopefully if we all work together what is a daunting sector (task) to undertake may become much more manageable and profitable for all. I will be following the CORR and CEPH story pretty closely and will certainly try to keep those numbers current. Lots of these companies have no sales, so expenses and partnership cashflows are super important! What to do?
Lastly, sorry if this is "glocking up" the thread... if we think it makes sense we can give this project a life of its own? Or let's see how it progresses and how much input we get.
Whew... O.K... deep breath. Guess that covers it, what do you think?
Next time: plans to start our own "THE BIOANALYST" website or subsection of SI and charge bigbucks to lurkers:)
DAK |
