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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 660.19-0.8%4:00 PM EST
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To: bobby beara who wrote (9926)4/6/1999 12:50:00 AM
From: Vitas  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
TITANIC UPDATE:

From recent Jerry Favors update:
-------------------------------
There is an indicator which several other market timers have commented on in this time frame called "The Titanic Syndrome".
This indicator was discovered by the late Bill Omaha. Most of the comments we have heard about this indicator we believe are incomplete. There are in fact 4 conditions necessary for this indicator to give a Sell Signal. They are as follows:

1. The Dow must make a new 52 week high
2. Within 7 days before or 7 days after the new high new
lows must exceed new highs
3. After the new high declining issues must exceed 1000
for 2 consecutive days and on one of those days the
advance/decline ratio must be less than 0.25
4. After the new high there must be 4 days out of 7 when
declining issues exceed 1000.

According to this indicator sell signals are given if
conditions 1, 2 and 3 are met,or if conditions 1, 2 and 4 are
met. Most analysts today will tell you a signal is given if
we see a new 52 week high and within 7 days before or after
that new high new lows exceed new highs. That is not
technically correct. The fact that new lows have exceeded
new highs in this time frame does not in itself generate the
sell signal. If at anytime from here on conditions 3 or 4 are
also met a sell signal will be given. That could signal a
much sharper decline ahead of us. However the Titanic
Syndrome has not technically given a sell signal yet. We
would watch the action very closely this week to see if
conditions 3 or 4 are met.

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