V.....staying within the boundries of that read from many weeks ago, the 1350-1360s target mentioned was a MAX allowable under the rules of that read, that doesn't mean it has to reach exactly to the MAX target. As time has s-t-r-e-t-c-hed that trend line out, it has moved the line up a bit, 1330's-1340's, yes?.....as i mentioned in previous posts it is not at all unusual for the current type of EWave formation, which i believe is an ending diagonal, to have a final quick spike above the trendline and it fakes people out.
In more conventional TA language, an ending diagonal is often observed
as a rising or ascending triangle...the conventional TA will throw out a percentage that says something like '60% of the time' if the trendline is pentrated to the top side then a price breakout is occuring. What about the other 30% or 40% of the time, when the price pops up above the trendline and then reverses sharply? Well, it is just called a 'false breakout' and no explanation is available.
My explanation is this: the 60% (or whatever %) of the times it breaks out and takes off, the ascending triangle is occurring in the 1st or 3rd wave or even the 4th.....however, when this situation occurs as the 5th wave of a move it is an ENDING diagonal..a terminating triangle, if you will. Thus if you are fortunate enough to get a nice clean looking EWave count that LOOKS like it's wave 5...
then you exit your longs and place your short bets where it appears to be terminating.....IT SHOULD be followed by a very sharp reversal....if it does not, and then exceeds your highest allowable target you get the hell out and accept your loss....money management
so to answer your question on an alternative count.....at this time i do not need an alternate to allow a pullback to 1300-1310 and then one last surging spike that exceeds the trendline briefly, and then falls hard
being that all TA and EWave stuff is an inexact science, there is ALWAYS another looky-see and there is one here that could target 1390-1400, but i don't buy it....if 1363 was ripped thru, then i would
for now, i will buy, if it occurs, a moderate dip into 1305-1310 tomorrow, and cash out quickly on a spiking surge above that trendline....then reverse engines....and until then i do still hold 104's on the DJX, if it fails first
That Death Guy |
