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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1064)4/6/1999 3:27:00 AM
From: Dave B  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Mike,

Rambus is Intel's tornado to start, but at a certain point (which I think they will get to fairly quickly) it becomes their own. Sony's and Nintendo's use of Direct Rambus DRAM is independent of Intel's use. Likewise the router and switch manufacturers (like TI) don't need Rambus to exist in PCs to continue their usage. HDTVs can and will use DRDRAM. PC usage of DRAM (according to the folks at Rambus) only accounts for 50% of overall DRAM usage, so they could still build a significant business if Intel stopped supporting DRDRAM. I saw an article on the Rambus thread today that estimated EPS of $10 in 2001 based on having just 60% of the half of the DRAM market that goes into PCs, up from $.32 in 1999. While this $10 is higher than most estimates I've seen, you can certainly imagine that if they continue to capture design wins on the non-PC side, they could probably generate significant growth even without PCs. I think that would still qualify as a tornado.

Dave B
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