Yesterday was Eastern Monday in Belgium so... I was off.
I don't work for NATO... How could a pro-American Anarchist, after all??
I've been discussing this whole Balkan imbroglio with friends during this weekend (Sat/Sun/Mo) and then, all of a sudden... BANG! An ominous outcome of the Kosovo war popped up in my mind:
On June 13th 1999, all EU electorates will go to the polls to vote for a new European Parliament. Up to now, pro-Europe political parties could reasonably hope for an easy victory over the chauvinistic, anti-Europe parties. The launch of the new European currency, the Euro, has proved to be successful --even though it dropped by 10% to the USD since January. Finance ministers have righfully pointed to the fact that the Euro has somehow shielded Europe from Asia's financial turmoils.
Yet, unemployment in Europe is still high and the so-called feeling of insecurity is rising in several European metropolis with an aging native (ie white European) populace mixed with youths from North Africa...
So, you've got these far-right, jingoist parties such as FN (Front National) led by Jean-Marie Le Pen and FN-MN (Front National-Mouvement National) a dissident offspring led by Bruno Megret in France --not to speak of other anti-Europe French currents (Pasqua/de Villiers, (Socialist) Chevenement, and the Communist/Trotskyist band...). Then, there's Jorg Haider's Freiheit Partei Osterreich in Austria; Italy's Legua Nord; Flanders's Vlaams Blok; Germany's Republikaners, etc. For all these nationalistic parties, the weakness of Europe in dealing with the Kosovo crisis is a godsend!! Because it will allow them to turn inside out their traditional anti-European propaganda... They'll say something like ''Hey! Look at these Brussels technocrats! See how inefficient they are in preventing the US from 'colonizing' Europe''. In short, they'll present themselves as the truly European white knights whereas previously, they spent most of their time trashing the bureaucratic European fabric.
Needless to say that the last fraud scandal involving the former EU Commission won't help either: nepotism and other corrupt practices on one hand, and diplomatic powerlessness in the Balkans on the other hand... Such a political cocktail could greatly benefit far-right parties throughout Europe.
Actually, this was what I meant by Serbia's jingo regime spreading around in the region. I still think of a dangerous political domino effect stemming from Belgrade. I expect to see, right here in Belgian Flanders, or in chauvinistic France, far-right parties emulating Milosevic's rhetoric... I don't expect to see Serbian tank divisions crossing the borders and invading Western Europe! I'm talking of a more insidious, ideological invasion: a mind conquest! Currently, jingo parties have been electrified by the fate of Serbia --and they'll likely capitalize on the Kosovo crisis in the coming elections.
Now, let's forestall the Balkan events a little further: what if the outcome of operation Allied Force is a political status quo in Belgrade? I mean what if in one year from now, Milosevic is still parading around in Belgrade? Like Saddam in Baghdad. Then the US will have created a new ''Balkan Hero'' for Europe's jingo lobbies! From Moscow to Marseilles (Southern France) they'll say: ''Look at this heroic little Serb: he resisted the most powerful army in the world! He saved his people's pride!'' Such an outcome would translate into a (geo)political success for Milosevic and into a galvanizing of all the chauvinistic breeds in Europe, both Eastern and Western. It might even trigger a coup in Moscow where the spineless Yeltsinites could be shouldered aside by the hardliners.
As Saddam stayed in power in Baghdad a few years ago, it wasn't that harmful to the Middle East fabric because Irak was already surrounded by autocratic regimes: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordania, Turkey, Syria, and Russia's Muslim Republics. Hence, it was unable to export its regime in neighboring Arab countries for the very same reason Iran's been unable to export its islamic revolution: all these autocratic regimes behaved like repellent magnets towards each other!
Such a political stalemate might not prove true for Europe if Milosevic is not removed by one way or another.
Regards,
Gustave. |
