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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

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To: Larry S. who wrote (19767)4/6/1999 8:17:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (3) of 53068
 
ok, I admit it, I'm old and out of sync with this "new reality'

Larry, you are old also, but have adapted; I guess i'm going the way of the dinos while you live long and prosper

I keep looking at stuff based on years of "classical" training; should throw that book out the window

someone on mirc keeps saying "it's the stock stupid, not the company"
he is right; for now at least

a few examples

NTBK and TBFC
both are "internet banks"
what do they do?
offer on line checking accounts, home mortgages, credit cards; C/D's at a higher rates than your local bank
but I look and say that most big banks offer on line banking
I ask just how many people will use the net instead of a bank down the street
and how many net users will put their cash in c'd's in any event
so why are these stocks up 1000% in the last 6 months?
why do they trade at 11 and 23 times book value when traditional banks trade at 2.5-3 times?
why do they have P/E's at 125 and 500 times earnings/?

CUST
this company was in some business last year
then they sold all their businesses
balance sheet shows about $5.50 in cash, no revenues
in the fall they said they would go into the music business (C/D's)
the wave of the future
just a few months later they say that business is dead so they scrap their plans
now they are "developing" some new internet paynent system
will be ready in the fall
so we have a company with a book of maybe $6
no business
at least 5mm in options out at very low prices
but the stock goes up, up, up
from 10 to 20+ in two weeks

TRAC
in the financial data business
revenues falling
earnings suck
looking at the balance sheet they are close to bankruptcy
almost out of cash
no tangable net worth
so they say that this month they are going to go into the on line brokerage business
and the stock goes from $3 in Dec to $27 yesterday

I look at this stuff and shake my head

can I adapt to this?
don't know

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