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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: Casaubon who wrote (9942)	4/6/1999 8:32:00 AM
From: theRedDog	Read Replies (1) of 99985

This is taken from today's briefing.com. For those who don't read it regularly, their commentaries are usually neutral to slightly bearish. ("realistic/esceptic", I would say) Their very first phrase is, of course, tongue in cheek, some kind of admission of capitulation. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> General Commentary: This time is different... Over the past couple of months the sector/market has had several big one-day rallies... But in almost each case there was no follow through buying... Within days the market would give back its gains and return to its relatively tight trading range... No longer... Briefing.com expects Monday's broad-based advance to be the beginning of a moderately strong upside push with a much-needed increase in participation... The reasons for our optimism: Earnings warning season coming to a close, with actual numbers set to start rolling in next week... Traders preparing for typical "sell the rumor, buy the fact" rebound. PC sector showing signs of life... As we have been predicting on this page over past few weeks, anxiety over sector slowdown was exaggerated - as problems more seasonal than permanent. Many of the second and third tier companies have already experienced "bear" move, falling by as much as 30%-40% from 52-wk highs... As such there are a number of relatively attractive long-term plays for value oriented investors. Momentum and bullish psychology in Net sector is contagious. Plenty of cash on sidelines (bolstered in part by tax returns). We doubt seriously that the current advance will match the historic Oct-Jan run, but gains should be relatively impressive... One factor limiting the upside is extreme values and overextended technical tone of sector leaders... At some point these stocks will have to correct and when they do it will be tough for rest of the players to pick up the slack... That said, the short-term outlook looks much improved following Monday's record-setting jump. <<<<<<<<<<<<

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