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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor
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To: uri vaughan cummings who wrote (451)2/24/1997 11:45:00 AM
From: SI-Shark   of 4710
 
Uri, The technology to do 2 Ghz cell phones is basically the same technology needed for Gigabit LAN and Fiber channels. This article confirms what I have been saying all along, namely that silicon will claim the majority of under 2GHz sockets within 2 years.

As for digital vs. analog GaAs. All digital circuits are facing the same wiring delay problems. This is now the dominate delay mechanism in 0.25u CMOS. To fix this problem there are various teflon type products that are being investigated as replacements for the Nitrides and Oxides that are currently used. This represents a major change in process technology and carries with it a very high development price tag. All the major semi companies have some level of research going on in this area, so I'm convinced that it will happen within 2 years and be in limited production within 3 years. I'm not convinced that VTSS will be able to develop a GaAs equivalent process. So I'm bearish on the long term applications of digital GaAs.

As for VTSS price, the first part of your forcast is correct. I can't see the mechanism for a rebound within the next 2 weeks so I'm inclined to say that it will drift down into the $38 to $40 range and have a $3+ intraday trading range. The strong support that existed at $36 sets the low bound. Of course this assumes that the technology market stays strong, otherwise VTSS could re-test the $30 support level. With this much uncertainity I regard VTSS as a trading stock.

regards
Si-Shark

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