I'm sitting here worried that if the next quarter revenues are not up to the whisper numbers we could see a pull back. Then again, if the numbers are solid, I don't see the stock taking flight as it has this past 6 months.
This is a resistence level that will need a new product (digitalme?) or some new partnering agreements (Cisco jumping on the NDS bandwagon, upcoming Lucent & Nortel switches) as well as other products like IP Telephony.
i-Chain could even have a huge impact on the perception of Novell as a true DOT COM company. If i-Chain develops with the right online presence (IBMs WebSphere), it will cause the stock to run up. I could see Novell at the center of the AOL/Sun deal very soon with digitalme, i-Chain and/or NDS.
I don't have technical data to support my opinion though (in terms of sales and revenues) but I can see how these products will increase Novell's "mindshare" in the marketplace. And these days, mindshare is king.
Also, once MSFT's Windows 2000 Pro ships, we'll see some real world comparisions to Novell's NetWare whereby people will line up for their directory services. MSFT will try to make a BIG splash with some marketing news but in the end, functionality will win out over marketing.
This is one place where FUD truly can't win over product. The directory space will be MSFT's final frontier. It's not the desktop or the application suite arena. I don't think that MSFT will re-engineer their desktop and application suite to disadvantage NDS and favor AD. They would never be able to hide that one from the eyes of the world but then again...
So this whole issue is much bigger than these old battles that MSFT has won. From what I've seen and heard about Active Directory, I don't think it can stack up to NDS today. So my question to EVERY MIS director in the world is, do you want it now or later?
[And by later, I don't mean that AD will pass NDS, just that later, AD will have the functionality that NDS possess today! while NDS has progressed even further.]
So Money managers and the like are holding back some to see where MSFT's chips will fall in terms of Windows 2000. Once that product hits the streets and the comparisions come in, the money will flow and I feel it will flow into Novell.
Peter Strifas |
