Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Big Dog who wrote (41673)	4/6/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

<< why you say you don't like what you see >> Big Dog; it's as much what I ''feel'' - as what I see...fwiw. The behavior of individual stocks - more than the OSX itself troubles me... Allthough we look to have 2 moderate up days here - I see continual selling into strength - not dumping; so that is a good thing; but I see a slow bleed here perhaps through the 1st half of the earnings period. Agreed; we did expect this; but Oil prices have surprised to the upside - exceeding anyones expectations; and the retracement here has ''slightly'' surprised to the downside - add this selling into strength here and we could see OSX perhaps retrace to 60ish - and if it does; the lack of Institutional buying support in some individual stocks here surprises me. I have been more heavilly weighted in E&P's and am actively trading - so this is not effecting me, so much as it is surprising me. I would love to keep getting some trading ''pops'' off of the BEXP's, MEXP's & hopefully CLB etc. and take some trading and E&P/Integrated gains - and rotate back into any weakness in a OSX 60ish range here - I'd love it... Without question; the Street is looking to avoid any ''CLB-esque'' surprises during this earnings period and also wants to see the first OPEC compliance figures before jumping in with both feet - and they will be jumping in with both feet if we do not have any negative earnings surprises and if OPEC answers the call.... Basically, I expected more people willing to beat the crowd to the party here..... maybe we will hold here; as of late, I'd say we are at a risk adjusted ''fair value'' right here... I just see a good possibility of continuing down to OSX 60ish ? Nearterm - the question remains; can we break out of resistance at OSX 70-72 before we actually see substantial rig utilization, dayrate increases and some new fab/mfg orders ? Doesn't seem like the street will push us over that hurdle untill they actually see the proof in the pudding - regardless of Oil prices...? The Street of late has not bought into any of the earnings release periods - hey, maybe they'll surprise us (VBG). For now - looks like we get to continue to play the rolling trading ranges.. FGI back to $12/13 ? - now $12/13 to $15/16 instead of the old $10-12 ? same game, just better numbers....?

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