| |
*AV*--I just bought more at $7 and will sit here. Give or take 1/8 (a real 1/8), I am averaged down to $8 even. So for those naysayers out here on the thread, I am officially on record as being down 12.5% on this investment. I have no insider information and my decision is based solely on the published information on this stock. What I have is a great deal of confidence in this company, its CEO, and its prospects for 1997. Therefore, I agree with SetevieBoi's assessment and am not encouraging anyone to invest.
I am just sharing my investment strategy and investment portfolio in hopes of teaching something to someone. As time goes on, either this investment was sound or foolish. Time will tell. However, participants of this thread will be following this company, its announcements, its performance, and checking back on its history or research materials. All these exercises will be beneficial to all that choose to go through the independent studies and make their informed decisions either in stock or on paper. As time marches forward, there will be discussions on this stock or others where more learning will occur. In the end a valuable lesson will be learned on what to do or not to do relative to investments. There is an education to be had here, albeit good or bad.
However, I will go on record to say that with the level of institutional holdings, and the trading volume of this stock recently, I truly believe this stock cannot be manipulted by me, by any one thread, by SI, by AOL, by Compuserve or even Market Maker, Public Relations, or Stock Picking Services that proliferate their heavy influence on certain securities. I tried to discuss (heavy on the word discuss) BYDS prior to this recent reversal and it is now common knowledge that I now own a great deal of shares in this company, averaged down. This is my investment choice (heavy on investment not trading). I am prepared to wait until the fall for this ship to come in.
I am writing this for a reason. First this is to clearly establish this stock as my investment and not my hype to purchase by anyone else. Should this investment turn around and surge upward (it went down fast so going up fast is not statisitically out of the question) it could easily turn out to be a trading stock not an investment. As profits present themselves, new decisions are made.
Second, I am writing this because of the proliferation of articles and stocks that are turning out to be scams and shills for bigger scams and hypes. This thread was started as an honest forum and I would very much like to see it kept on the up and up. If I cross the line, I need to be put on notice. However, I am reading more and more about scams, hypes, email services, etal. that are dragging innocent people into poor investments or attracting investors on an unequal set of tiers. Some services will provide you information 24 hours prior to general release which allows you to get a jumpstart on the general population. Others claim to be in the know, others are just scams, and some are uncovered frauds. Anything worth investing in is worth investigating and researching prior to investing. Missing the first 10-20% of a legitimate run up is much better than buying at the top and watching it go down since you were the last to find out about it. Make time your investment friend not your enemy. Everything can wait a day or two or it really is too risky to get involved in. People in the know could very easily be people who invested first and know that a release of partial truths or plain rumors can jumpstart a stock to levels of significant profit before a large reversal. The companies themselvces can be totally honest or slightly shaded or even scams.
I will go on record with these examples: FTEL and SYCR. P. Webster is pissed because an entry point of $0.75 was passed up by Webster. Yet those that got into FTEL at $3.50 are really happy now that it is over $ 4.50. What about the $5 and above investors? They are not happy right now. Did they get in too late or did they get in at the tail end of all the publicity on this company that spread far and wide through AOL and SI. Who knows?? The $5 guys got on a little bit too late it seems (heavy on the seems). Are there good thongs coming down the road? Probably. Will it get another jumpstart?? Probably. Is this good or bad?? Neither, it is just a matter of timing. Does this company look like a scam?? From the research I was able to do, I cannot find anything to suggest that. Did this stock get a good run based on threads, subscription services and AOL. I beleive so. Is that bad?? Not for the ones that got in early. The power of the internet worked for them. The same is true for SYCR except that some well intentioned posters have informed us of some shady things in SYCR's past. Did it get enough steam going for a good run especially with the release of WinDrenalin? Yes, it did and hopefully all the $1.50 to $3.50 investors are realizing hard currency profits on this stock. But again good press releases and good internet coverage helped this stock.
How will both stocks perform down the road. Only time will tell. I see a desertion from these stocks coming as new ones start popping up on these threads. Hopefully those that play this game have the proper timing to exit with a profit and jump on the next train before it also takes off. It this a crime?? I sure hope not. For those that do play that game, I guess it is another type of investment strategy. If you can time your entry and your exit, you should do well. My only advice is to carefully study the price and volume of these stocks prior to investing. Look at the last 100 days, last 10 days, last 5 days, and yesterdays numbers and see if there are any discrepancies. Be aware of any news releases or internet traffic occurring on the stock in question and rationalize as to whether you beleive you are coming into this investment at the beginning, middle or end of the "movie". Make this a final investment decision.
Too many people are coming up with the same investment at too close a time frame which means either dumb luck has occurred or the stock name is being made available to them from similar or dissimilar sources of information. If you haven't come up with this investment on your own, please think twice about it before investing and please investigate its origin prior to posting it on the threads. Jumping on the bandwagon is okay in my book but recognize that you are jumping on someone else's bandwagon and admit to that on this thread. This at least will allow us to take that piece of information into consideration. If you know the stock is being presented in other forums, is being hyped, or is this week's super pick of a service, please tell us about it also.
I have no trouble with anyone making a fast dollar or two by being the first to jump on a bandwagon but keep in mind that you have to look at yourself in the mirror each day. Having others invest in the same stock on your recommendation and not your strong belief backed up with your own research, could cause financial hardship to that new or novice investor, if they are the last to jump aboard.
I am coming down off my high horse now and am prepared for the flaming "We are all adults and do not need a mother" replies. Some of you may feel I deserve it, and I may. However, without mentioning names, I have come across numerous scams and I have read in this thread some investigative work done on one or two stocks mentioned that are more than likely fraudulent. I still believe we have an obligation to being our brother's keeper at times. All I am asking is not to entice anyone into a stock that you have not done thorough research on and a stock that you would back up with investing 50% of your retirement money into. If it is a risky flyer with a high return if successful, state it as so. Give us a risk rating based on hype, rumor, circulation of information by services or threads, etc. At least level the playing field that way so we all know up front what we are getting into and do not get blindsided.
I will start with BYDS. This is a quality company that I have 66% of my personal stock IRA invested in. Hand on bible and swear to the Almighty. I believe this stock will perform and I have published my exit strategy. This is a specualtive stock that is based on the logo and name of a respected Hot Rod icon, Boyd Coddington and my belief that the Baby Boomers in their late mide 40s to mid 50s are going to sell their Harleys and other motorcycles and re-live their youth of the 1950s with new hot rods or adding hot rod accessories to their sport utility vehicles. Hell, if BYDS gets to $15, I will probably go out and put billet wheels on my sport utility 4 wheel drive vehicle. Can BYDS go bankrupt? This is America, anyone can go bankrupt!! My confidence is to the tune of 66% of my retirement account which is roughly 20 years out in the future. I am being aggressive on this stock.
My friends, I am distraught this stock has dropped yet another dollar and I wish it had not. As I write this, CFMT is off $1.50 and getting closer to a new entry point. The SI bull/bear survey, something I always look at is now at 450 Bulls and close to 200 Bears. It was not long ago that the survey was 600+ Bulls and 150- Bears. I have gone to cash in some very good moves (again that is now in retrospect) and am waiting for re-entry points.
I am also looking for exit points for 4 stocks that I beleive are losers or scams that I was foolish enough to invest in through the advice or information of well meaning people. They should not feel bad because after the information was presented, I did my own research and determined their risk levels and CHOSE to take the risks. In these four cases the risk for downside was greater than the upside but the payoff was worth the risk. These stocks will be used to cover margin calls, if one occurs.
Finally, there is no stock in my portfolio that I am not prepared to keep for the long term with the exception of ALYD, which for obvious reasons (YEAR2000) has a time limit to it for real growth potential. I need to say this because I refuse to lead anyone into a short term get rich quick scheme. If the stocks I talk about do not perform in the timeframe you would like them to then it is time to look at other stocks. The stocks in my portfolio are "investments" that turn into "trades" if and when the opportunities present themselves. But I am there to participate in any roller coaster rides that may occur.
The word "clique" was used in a previous post. I also feel bad about that and the perception that it brings. There is a core of people that have congregated here each with its own unique characteristics. I am sure I haven't answered all the questions posed to me since I still have a stack of posts I printed to get back to people on that is still not done. Kevin provides the TA, Patrick provides his experiences in the market, P. Webster dominated the under $10 stocks, I provide my expertise in the semis, Jeff is keeping us YR2000 and software informed, Steve Messina provides some insights and research as well as keeping us on our toes. However, Stimpy, Big Brother, alias, Roger, Scott, Robert Newton, and others are making their presence known in areas that will certainly distinguish themselves. I see the "clique" growing and a stronger community evolving. IF you feel slighted, speak up and demand to be heard and demand the apology.
I also see the chauvinism in the "female comments". Well, surprise, surprise that chivalry pops up every so often. I grew up with the double standard so it is hard not to open doors for the ladies and to be protective of the women. Over time I guess we can all become more callous or gender neutral but for now I reflect on my mother and the fact that she is finanically incompetent. My Dad took care of everything and she had her household "allowance" so when he died 20 years ago, she was mentally unprepared to take care of the finances and was financially paralyzed in her investments (investments made by my father, grandfather and myself). To her credit, her paralysis was in quality companies like LTR, DUKE, SO, ATT, IBM, Consolidated Foods, etc. that did nothing but pay dividends, grow, split and grow some more. Lucky for her she was paralyzed in quality stocks and never had to touch the capital. So for better or worse, when I see women strike out for financial independence, my double standard chavinism gets the best of me and I may show some preference in that direction. I also want to make sure the women do not get conned by the con artists like in the past with certain auto mechanics that took advantage of unsuspecting women and teenagers. Hell, the auto mechanics take me to the cleaners since I know nothing about car engines (Thanks to my Dad and his compulsive behavior about not letting us see what was under the hood of the family cars growing up).
I just realized that, when I left, I never pushed the submit button. Therefore stock prices may have changed by the time this actually posts. So, if there are any discrepancies, please overlook them and consider this a 9:30 am posting perspective.
Why all this crap and this lengthy post. Possibly a little therapy for my soul during trying family matters. I just got back from the hospital where my granddaughter is in critical condition. The little girl lives with us and has for the past 5 1/2 years of her life so she is like a daughter to me and a sister to my kids. She is fighting for her life as I write and it is all in her own hands. She has been on the brink before and has come back but this is the worst she has been.
Some of the people on this thread know the whole story so without going into great details, it has been a blessing that she has made it this far in life and every day she is here, it is a gift.
So between freezing my flu infested butt off in sub zero weather this weekend, finding out that the granddaughter is in critical condition possiblly from a flu bug (mine), not being able to get in touch with my wife who is out of town right now and has not checked in to her new hotel yet, and seeing BYDS not respond, I am not exactly feeling chipper. Therefore, let's have a nice stock rally to get us out of the doldrums and let's find a really good quality stock that will provide the returns everyone desires. It would sure help me get my mind off things and bring a little less stress.
For lack of anything better, a few more digs at the IRS or other governing bodies would also be nice. A joke a day make the blues go away. And if that doesn't work, does anyone have any gasoline to throw on the fire and get a good thread argument going (only fooling!!!).
Regards,
Andrew
Andrew |
|
