...the DOJ may rein in Microsoft enough that Oracle will prosper.
And just what has Oracle been doing since 1979? If owning the RDBMS marketplace is not prospering, I don't know what is (or is prosperity now defined as having a monopoly like Microsoft or a valuation based on vapor like Amazon.com).
Pick a story in the news about an internet venture, and chances are that there is Oracle software behind it. Today's big story is BMG-Universal's getmusic.com. What is the back end of that operation? Oracle (I worked on the project briefly). What is behind Amazon, 1-800-Flowers, Yahoo, you name it. The answer is Oracle. Oracle is prospering, regardless of what the stock chart says.
What else is going on with Oracle? Interest and demand for 8i is huge, and the development community hasn't even figured out what they're going to do with it yet. I attended a presentation by a vendor of asset management software for publishing companies and they plan to go with 8i and iFS. Why? Because then Oracle takes care of the storage (images, text files, graphics, etc.) and they get platform independence for free. No more programming to deal with different file systems, the database server takes care of all of that. Migrating from one platform to another? No problem, just move the database.
Oracle has just released Oracle Developer 6.0 and has a good chance with this tool of more firmly establishing their position in the applications development tool space. If they can just convert a portion of their installed server base from third party development tools to Oracle Developer, it will be a big win.
WebDB is a fantastic tool for point and click development of self-service web applications. Once Oracle gets the mechanism in place for ISPs to support WebDB front ends and Oracle back ends (I think it is going to be mostly a pricing issue, unfortunately, this is where Oracle constantly falls short) the size of the Oracle development community can explode. Princeton University has built a WebDB system to allow students access to their schedules, phone bills, etc. all from a browser. No client software is required, and the entire application runs in the database. It scales as the DB server scales.
Meanwhile, for all of the criticism of Larry Ellison's Network Computer evangelism, Oracle's NCI subsidiary is quitely signing big deals throughout Europe and Asia where the installed PC base is nowhere near what it is in the US and widespread internet access through a set top box will become a reality. Oracle plans to spin off NCI later this year.
More and more attention is being given to "renting" applications over the internet (ah yes, the good old days of timesharing) and Oracle is positioning Business Online to compete in that space (of course all of Larry's talk of lawyers.com and doctors.com is just senseless bluster!). There are plans to spin off that venture as well.
And regardless of what others have posted here, the consultants I know that work for Oracle Consulting Services are not on the beach, and I know plenty of clients that are hiring OCS.
I wish I could speak to the ERP and other packaged apps business, but I am not really involved in that marketplace. I have been on the database and applications development side, primarily working with Oracle's RDBMS since 1985. There are others on the thread who know the apps business much better than I do.
I have been on the Oracle roller coaster ride before. I decided a long time ago not to try and time the tops and bottoms. I'll buy when the price drops, but Oracle is a core long-term holding for me. I'm immersed in Oracle stuff every day and see nothing to indicate that there is anything wrong with the company. I'm confident that when Oracle's stock price heads up again (and it will), it will get substantially higher than it was before the split. I don't trade, so the long term charts hold my interest. Long term, Oracle just moves up.
-Michael |
