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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (5345)4/7/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: David Eddy  Read Replies (3) of 9818
 
Ron -

But there is a chance that the economy will suffer recessionary effects from slowing business "velocity" and shrinking consumer confidence as spenders become savers and hunker down.

As I'm sure you've noticed, economists (other than Ed Yardeni) are extremely unwilling to step into the Y2K fray.

I have, however, been able to get a few to reluctantly admit that it's likely (well maybe possible, or at least worthy of considering or modeling.... waffle, waffle, waffle) that the economy will get a noticable boost from stockpiling activities by both companies & consumers alike.

But then we have to pay the piper on the other side as these bulked up inventories are drawn down, thereby idling plant capacity.

Head I win, tails you loose. <g>

I just am not convinced that there exists convincing evidence that there will be a total blackout of power or critical infrastructure here in the US.

There are plenty of workarounds for taking demand out of the power grid [ y2ktimebomb.com ].

I've already found evidence that power companies are going around to their industrial customers (who typically have their own generation capabilities, particularly now that they can sell it into the grid) & telling them to be looking elsewhere for power if push comes to shove.

I don't worry about the grid. Too many ways to protect it.

- David
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