On Bosco's "Yepping", recovery, rubber neckers at accidents, and diminished posts
Frankly I would rather read Bosco's "yepping" then many of the 4 hours of articles, business analysis, and technical material that I read per day. Therefore I always do. First thing. The Asia forum is the first thing I read after the stock quotes when I "fire up" in the morning here. Which often means that Bosco is the first writer I read.
Paul is quite right that we have always been a "top down" observation post. Many of the other threads are all about the days price, 40 moving averages, tombstone dojis, and the latest analyst bashing. This has kept this thread, imo, a pleasant read. I have been quiet but lurking and reading. You guys know me by now. I stay quiet when there is substantive discussions about economics. I may pipe up once in a while but in the main, I am on very thin intellectual ice when it comes to that subject and am perfectly happy to listen and attempt to learn.
Then I stayed out and observed the recent debate about China. I stayed out because I could see merits in both sides of that argument and couldn't establish a strong enough opinion either way to take a stand. Nor could I find a convenient entry point as a mediator. So I just listened, a learned a bit more. Then Jerard linked that interesting web page and I finally got around to browsing it last night. I agree. It appears to be a labor of love.
Here in Malaysia I do not think the accident is over, nor do I think it is over in Japan where I have on-going business contacts. I leave for Japan in a few days (and then will make one of my semi annual treks to the States). Don't forget, the recession in Japan has just started in earnest for thousands of Sony employees. Frankly I think Sony's retrenchment was a major awakening for a lot of salary men in Japan based on some of the comments I have heard. Next week I will be interviewing a lot of nervous tech sector executives about capital spending plans in the coming new fiscal year. They are in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. Technology migration is forcing them to belly up to the bar for new equipment at a time they have little confidence in any business forecast.
Locally I have noticed several things. There is a turn-over process underway at the small business level. A restaurant that closed down early in the onset of the crisis has been reoccupied as a furniture store. A large grocery store literally disappeared overnight with no notice, a sign on the establishment indicated that there had been some official confiscation of the stocks. Seven days later a wholesaler was redoing the interior to set up business. A tea shop which I frequent has begun renovation of an upstairs storage area to put in some tables and chairs and expand. Next door to the tea shop a curio shop is seldom open anymore and it is likely just a matter of time before the goods are moved out. On the road outside our small neighborhood a fellow set up a couple of mountains of melons and began selling them at almost half the normal price. We stopped and bought some, and asked him why so cheap. He told us that the melons had been slated for export to Japan, (at very good prices). But the onset of Japanese Encephalitis had caused the importer to cancel all orders with Malaysian producers. Apparently the fruits and vegetable exports to Taiwan have also dried up. All this in spite of the fact that there is just no way for the epidemic to spread through these items. Equally safe is the consumption of pork. But you won't find any here. Irrational fear has literally killed the market. We heard one story of a vendor who tried to sell pork and finally gave up, giving away what he had. The tourist arrivals in Malaysia have virtually dried up. Hotels, already strained by diminished business travel, and already overbuilt due to the preparations for the Commonwealth games last year, are in a desperate situation and I am sure we will see closings soon.
The rubber neckers may have just had a stiff neck and decided to give it a rest. There will still be spectacles to discuss however. The decision in the Anwar trial is due this month. Then there are the general elections due within a year. There will be plenty of fodder for the thread IMO. In any case, if the limited signs of a recovery began to grow, then maybe we can start to talk about share prices and oversold issues. Ultimately I agree with Robert. <<I think maybe there is a buck or two to be made. >>
Best,
Stitch |
