Ross,
I believe the mid-1997 drop had, at least in part,to do with rumors that LSI would not have a part in Playstation II. This was the ostensible reason. LSI was also supposed to earn something like 1.40 - 1.70 in 1998, but we know how that turned out. It seemed, though, in hindsight, that people decided that Playstation I revenue would start to dry up, which it did, and the semis downturn was likely to deepen, which it did, and maybe that optimism about LSI's new cash cows (DVD, Digital cameras, fibre channel, set top boxes) was premature. So you could say the situation is different now: DVD is showing signs of really catching on, cameras may still be a little in the distance, storage is going well as lots of people have argued and noted here. I'm not sure about set-top boxes, though I remember that their business there took a hit. And then there are all those communications related chips that are doing well. So it doesn't seem to me like we're where we were at in mid-1997. The hopes of mid-1997 seem to be finally about to pay off here in almost mid-1999.
For the real history, though, you might reread the posts on this thread back then.
Andy |
