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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: BGR who wrote (55117)4/7/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
bgr, i'll give you evidence that mpt doesn't work. in 1997 16 mb dram prices had collapsed from $10 to $6.50 and the herd ran the stock up from $40 to $60 as mu's earnings were obviously collapsing.

the problem w/ mpt may not be the theory itself. it may be an assumption that it makes. it assumes people can interpret the data correctly.

if you give me 2+2=4 and the herd says 6 'cause it feels good, does that make for modern math theory?

to the person that sees the obvious answer as being 4, any theory that says the herd is right at 6 sounds dumb. absurdly so. that is where i am at w/ mpt. it is absurd b/c analysis and interpretation of the street is extremely weak.

my forward predictions on mu, as mike's and all the bears, have been so obviously correct b/c we interpreted data correctly. just b/c the herd didn't have this ability doesn't mean they were right in valuing mu at absurd levels relative to reality. mpt says they were defacto right. mpt is wrong. throw it out and start over or improve it so that it works.
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