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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: John Stichnoth who wrote (1182)4/7/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: Bradley W. Price  Read Replies (2) of 5853
 
<The finances would be through the cellular cos. They might offer one of two packages--For $5 per month (or some fixed number) on top of the basic package, the user could access satellites transparently. The cellular operator would have a contract with the satco based on number of subscribers, say at $3 per month. Once the cellular cos have say 50 million subscribers out there paying $5 each per month, that gives the satcos $1.8 billion per year to keep their satellites running and pay the interest costs.

A second alternative for cellular subscribers would be a per-use fee, perhaps $1.50 per minute. Low enough to be used in an emergency, but high enough to encourage the $5 per month fixed fee. Again, the subscriber would pay the cellular operator, and their would be an unseen arrangement with a satco.>>

These numbers are completely asinine. First, I don't think a sat can switch 50 million users are even 500,000 concurrent ones. For a lot of reasons, its difficult to put a lot of processing power in space, though optical may change that! That is the reason for the high per minute costs in addition to the high fixed costs associated with building and launching satellites.

All the dreaming here isn't going to change the fact that it is easier to fix gaps in coverage with earth bound solutions, like more base stations than with space borne solutions. Space is great for one way solutions ala gps or dbs, but the economics aren't that compelling for two way solutions.

bp

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