To all: An analysis of market segments (multiply posted).
I have been recording the net asset values for 5-10 leading funds that specialize in several market segemets using Morningstar classifications; Large Cap Value, Low cap growth, etc. from Nov 15/96 to 2/21/97 that I would like to pass on to several of the small cap stock threads I participate in. While we anxiously looked forward to the "January Effect" during the horrendous small cap sell off during tax loss season, of the six general domestic classifications, small cap growth stocks are doing the worst BY FAR. Wether this stock has good fundamentals and/or prospects or not, the fact is that as a whole, small cap stocks (other than the type equities held by "value" funds such as WPSVX or RSPFX) are sliding south. Look at Van Wagoner Emerging, or Putnam OTC for example.
Anyway, here's what I've seen since 11/15
#1 Large Cap Value (+5.2%)
2 Mid cap value (+4.2%)
3 Large Cap growth (+2.8%)
4 Small cap value (+2.3%)
5. Mid cap growth (+0.5%)
6. Small cap growth (-5.2%)
and as for sectors, Technology funds are -10.7 %, while healthcare is +5.7%. OLEX and UNRG have slid significantly despite good nouncements. AXC is down despite a major contract and a 120% earnings suprise
So if you are a long term investor, think before you decide you blew your due deligance - there's a good change you're (like me)
in the wrong place at the wrong time. The market is solidly on a value bent, and small cap tech growth is getting creamed. Hope this has value for some of you. Statistically, the smallest 10% of market cap traditionally has both the highest return and volitility over the long haul. Ralph Acampora (sp?) the lead tech analyst with Prudential
(the guy who made the DOW 7000 call back when it was at 4000) has already suggested that the market may soon shift toward lower cap stocks. Unfortunately for us, it ain't happened yet. Scott
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