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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 208.59+4.1%Dec 4 3:59 PM EST
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To: Gary Korn who wrote (60671)4/8/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: Lee L.  Read Replies (1) of 61433
 
Hello Gary. As a long-term lurker on this thread, I have appreciated your posts over the last two years. Referencing Oracle, it may be a good buy at these levels, but I don't believe that it has the upside potential of a 1997 Asnd:

Margins. Database margins have eroded and will probably continue to do so. MSFT's SQL Server continues to get better and will continue to be cheaper. This is a major force negatively impacting Oracle.

DB Market. Unlike the telecom market where carriers and corporations may be re-building their infrastructure several times over the next decade (to the benefit of asnd, csco, etc.), the relational db market is relatively stable. A couple of years ago, we thought that object-oriented database technology would generate a wave of systems re-engineering to the benefit of Oracle and others. To date, it just hasn't happened; doesn't look like it ever will.

ERP Market. The melt-down of the ERP market is for real. Oracle has never done well in selling apps and it will only get tougher for these guys. Oracle makes a lot of noise about its front-office strategy, but has yet to deliver.

If you want a pure database play, take a look at Informix. Thanks again for your posts.

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