Well this is my last post. Got too much else on my plate.
The concentrate market will be in mild deficit until year end when Century and Lisheen cause a temporary oversupply. This will trick everyone into thinking that the fundamentals have deteriorated. The oversupply is temporary due to the multiple mine closures slated for 2000-2002 timeframe.
Closures 2000-2002
Hellyer- 130,000T
Mt. Isa- 150,000T
Selbaie- 50,000T
Sullivan- 90,000T
Polaris- 125,000T
Woodcutter- 50,000T
Black Mountain/Pering- 50,000T
Heath Steele- 50,000T
Multiple mine closures in 2003-2005 timeframe also.
Production but backs coming (99-2001) due to dwindling reserves at:
Broken Hill- 50,000T, (dead in 8 years).
Brunswick- 50,000T, (dead in 8 years,wrote off 30% of reserves recently).
Kidd Creek- 20,000T, (dead in 8 years)
Nanisivik- 10,00T, (dead in 5 years)
New Production:
Century- 400,000T
Lisheen- 135,000T
La Ronde- 40,000T
Antamina- 150,000T
Franciso Madera- 70,000T
Fisher- 100,000T
Mine supply will be up 2.5% this year and 6% in 2000. However it then drops 2.6 and 3.7% in 2001 and 2002.
Smelters are still producing slightly above demand so LME will stagnate at current levels for some time. Any news however, will only be good news. The concentrate market heads into severe deficit in 2001 which is what Brook Hunt has been saying also providing modest increases in demand of 0.5,1.5,1.5,2,2% per year from 99 to 2003.
And as I've predicted for some time the ex-commies have shot their wad....
Hong Kong--Apr 8--China's largest zinc producer Huludao North-East
Nonferrous Metals Group Co. shut its 130,000 tonne-per-year capacity zinc
smelter late last week due to insufficient zinc concentrate, sources said.
The company's other 200,000-tonne-per-year capacity smelter is believed to
be running below capacity, also due to insufficient zinc concentrates
supply.
Huludao operates 2 smelters on adjacent sites with a combined capacity
of 330,000 tonnes per year, although production is thought to have been
around 280,000-300,000 tonnes in recent years. By Polly Yam, Bridge News,
Story
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