| |
Take some time and read this>
What Analysts are beginning to see.....
by: The_Rich_Janitor
16918 of 16920
First of all, QCOM is way undervalued and if you would like to read my layman version as to why, please keep
going.....
Second of all, Chan DK, I find it impossible to believe that you are in the CDMA (or wireless) industry unless
you are a receptionists or something. I do appreciate your insights (mostly wrong), but don't need advise on how
to buy stocks.
If anyone is selling short on this stock, they are going to lose their a....
OK remember this is just a layman's summary of why qcom's stock price will grow by 5-10x current levels by
the year 2001:
Remember, I am not Smith-barney (just a rich janitor) so you 'know it alls' can eat this up all you want:
The analysis:
4% IP royalty (5.75% today - this will go down)
2.50 per handset w/o QCOM ASIC
Assume 20% of market uses qcom ASIC (lower today, higher tomorrow)
so, chip margin = 40% on $15 ASIC (future price)
Wireless Market - Worldwide
1998 = 203.4 M subscribers
2000 = 402.6 M subscribers
2002 = 612.5 M subscribers
33% of all new phones out will be CDMA - 15% today, this will grow continually as a result of the agreed 3G
Standard
Phone royalty(nonqcom Asic) = $6.50 X ca 400,000,000/3 = ca 1 Billion dollars (this is a low ball)
Oh, what about 20% CDMA ASIC business, let's see 40% of $15 = $6.00 so 20% of the 33% of new phones
(133,000,000) = 26,000,000 x $6 = another $175,000,000
Oh, Subscriber Unit
BBA and other CDMA components, video, GlobalStar (GSTRF), licenses (including chip royalties on the guys
who make CDMA chips - VLSI, LSI, DSPC, etc.), S/W royalties and licenses, and so on and so on.
So what does this mean. OK let's be very conservative, let's say QCOM after interest income in the year 2002
= only $1.5 Billion
MSFT:
MV = 490B, ATI = 6B
QCOM:
MV = X, ATI = 1.5B
so 1/4 of 490B (6/1.5) = 122.5B
Current QCOM MV = 10B @ stock price of 145
multiply today's stock price by 12 and you have a similar model to MSFT
Don't like MSFT, let's use AT&T
MV =148, ATI = 5B
1/3 of 150B = 50B
so multiply today's stock price by 5
Fact of the matter is that I have been very conservative and moving forward numbers past 2002 will be 70-80%
of QCOM IP. The reality is that QCOM now the new MSFT of wireless telecommunications, an industry with
200B in revenue in 1998 and projected 361B in the year 2002.
This is what the analysts are coming up to speed on. With better detail and reasoning I hope.
The more you sell, the cheaper I can buy it for
Posted: 04/08/99, 3:15PM EDT as a reply to: Msg 16914 b |
|
