john, mohan, and all: i just listened to it...i get the feeling that either kumar is a super boring, dry kind of speaker, or perhaps he can't get excited about the exciting because he called dell negative recently and there was nothing negative to report today...hmm...maybe both are true.
his $55 target calculation was one of the more "nontechnical" i have heard from an analyst, and seemed more like a conservative "finger to the wind" kind of calculation from someone who wanted to come out with a relatively low number.
IMO Dell will see $55 before earnings, and sooner if/when the next IBM piece is announced. if the stock stays beaten down through earnings, it will run up on the earnings news, rather than the usual temporary selloff...either way, those long on dell will benefit. i for one sense some big news on the short term horizon...once everyone MD knows has bought all the shares they ever dreamed of.:)
i do find it rather ironic that analysts and critics talk about the need for dell to become "more than a box maker," while they seem to underestimate dell's growing presence in the net AND while, at the same time, they scratch their heads about why dell doesn't jump into the "sub $600" (sub profitable) pc biz...watch, once the analysts who have been negative on dell for valuation buy all they need, they will turn around and talk about how dell has grown into the more profitable areas of the business (ie. how they were SO smart NOT to jump into sub $600s) and the net, and therefore it deserves a much higher valuation! JMOs ... the analyst game has gotten rather trasparent of late...maybe someday they will use more common sense and observation along with their arithmetic to come up with their predictions, and they will be right more than wrong, and richer as well.
cheers, GRANOLA |
