ASDV- Aspect Development-THE NEXT MSFT! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : ASDV- Aspect Development-THE NEXT MSFT!

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To: Big Dog who wrote (256)	4/8/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Golfinginthesun	Read Replies (1) of 414

Darrell, Great post. It's dead money depending on your desired exit point. If you bought at 8 and are looking for 12, I don't consider a one month time frame to be dead money unless your day trading. Then your not an investor, just a trader or really a gambler by another name. I'm not so sure your gonna see a lawsuit on this one. The company has done a good job about warning people of lumpiness of revenue and dependence on large contracts (I don't see how the analyst can honestly say they are shocked by the dependence on large deals - if they say that it is an admittal to not reading the financials) and their damage control has been excellent. Even if they wont let investors listen in on a tape delay of the conference call. :( If your a plaintiffs attorney (read ambulance chaser in a limo) you still have a gating process to determine when you file a lawsuit. Obviously the first gate is a significant loss in the market. I am sure every one of 'em including that jerk-off with bad hair in LA are checking into the merits of pressing in. While they need nothing to hang their hat on to file they still want to be sure that a company is in a position to want to settle regardless or that they think they have reason to believe they will find something when they go on the fishing expedition. It's pretty obvious the latter is not there. If the company has confidence in itself and the insurance company is in sync with them then they can fend off the initial inquiries very quickly. I agree it is possible but I hardly consider a lawsuit the guarenteed event everyelse seems to be describing. I think it is more of a 50/50 likelihood and think the likelihood of a negative outcome from it to be less than 10%. They could find something in the fishing expedition but I doubt it. In regard to writing things off, the company has nothing to write-off. They don't capitalize s/w expenses. Every other year Romesh inquires about doing it and but in the end analysis the short term benefit you reap is not worth the administrative cost for your R&D group and Finance group to shoulder. Especially when you factor in that a good analyst reverses out the effect of FAS86 when analyzing a s/w company.... Other than that, the only other significant judgement item is the reserve for the Cadis acquisition which I have not reviewed yet in the 10-K. I would hope it is all gone now and any benefit has been absorbed. That's a credit as we made sure it was fully inclusive - maybe even a little fat... They might take a moment and write-off any aged F/A but that wont be very material. They are just a s/w company. I'd definitely be fattening up any accruals that were thin at this point. Unfortunately it would be hard to justify increasing either the commission or bonus accruals.....but maybe t&a expense, a/r reserve, etc

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