What effect do you think a delay in RDRAM would have on equipment suppliers? Wouldn't this be good for test equipment?
Regards,
Mark
From Electronic News--April 5, 1999
Camino Chipset Delay Sparks DRAM Turmoil
OEMs fuming over Rambus pushback
By Peter Brown
San Jose--Intel Corp.'s delay of the Camino chipset has thrown the DRAM market into upheaval, infuriating OEMs and memory suppliers alike and opening the door to alternatives to direct Rambus DRAMs.
Just over a month after Intel revealed it was delaying the Camino chipset, designed to work with direct Rambus DRAM (D-RDRAM) in next generation PCs, other types of DRAMs--specifically PC-133 SDRAM--have received a new lease on life in 1999.
Intel's delay has weakened Rambus' position in the market this year and could very well cost it design wins in the future as PC OEMs are now looking at PC-133 as a substitute for Rambus as the main memory of choice in the coming months.
Many PC OEMs are now doing parallel development for both D-RDRAM and PC-133 for desktop PCs, according to Stephen D. Marlow, VP of Toshiba America Electronic Component's memory business unit.
Based on internal forecasting at Toshiba, PC-133 design starts were significantly less before Intel delayed the Camino than they are now. Toshiba expects PC-133 will claim as much, if not more, of the total DRAM market this year as Rambus memory. Before the delay, Rambus commanded a much larger piece of the pie this year. “If you look at Rambus on January 31 and the impression of Rambus after February 20 (when Intel announced the delay), things have changed immensely,” said Marlow. “OEMs are scrambling to look at alternatives as a back-up plan if the Camino is delayed any further.”
“If Camino has another slip, there would certainly be a big enough hole in the market for an alternative DRAM to drive a truck through, and then things would really get interesting,” said Steve Cullen, analyst at Cahners In-Stat Group.
Cullen has also readjusted his forecast for PC-133 numbers with that technology having as much impact, if not more, than Rambus this year.
“PC OEMs are always keeping an eye on various technologies,” said Cecil Conkle, assistant VP of DRAM marketing at Mitsubishi Electronics America Inc. “Since Rambus' image has been tarnished a bit, though, PC OEMs do seem at least more talkative about hedging their bets, continuing to implement a variety of memory options across the spectrum of their systems offerings.”
Hitachi Semiconductor Inc., a division of Hitachi Limited., is seeing the same thing with its PC OEM customers. “Clearly the number of design starts for Rambus has gone down for the remainder of this year and PC OEMs are taking a fairly conservative approach toward all technologies, not wanting to risk their 4Q sales,” said Bob Fusco, product market manager for the DRAM business unit at Hitachi. “Also we now have OEMs looking at DDR and PC-133 where before they wouldn't even talk about it because it was not on Intel's roadmap.”
OEMs are seething about the delay, said Sherry Garber, an analyst with Semico Research in Phoenix. “Dell Computer is talking openly about how upset they are.”
The Camino delay has also riled many DRAM vendors, she said. “Companies like Toshiba and LG Semicon have taken a real hit. They're standing there with a product, the 64 meg Rambus DRAM, that nobody wants. Demand went to zero when Camino was delayed. These vendors made the investment when they didn't have the money to invest.”
Garber expects the 64 meg D-RDRAM generation will essentially be scrapped now. She anticipates only a million to 1.5 million Camino chipsets will be shipped by Intel this year.
Lack of Chipsets
One of the obstacles for PC-133 may lie in the chipset arena. If chipsets become available, then PC-133 stands a better chance at making some headway, noted Cullen. Currently Via Technologies Inc. is the only chipset vendor that has announced development with a PC-133 chipset. Via is also working on a desktop PC standard to help with a possible transition to the technology.
Avo Kanadjian, VP of memory marketing at Samsung Semiconductor Inc., believes the lack of chipsets on the market will limit the potential of PC-133, although it will have significant designs in the server/workstation market.
“We have been asking the question, 'Should Rambus not meet the criteria or get to market what would be our options?'” said Kanadjian. “The answer is that there are no options, nothing has the infrastructure in place. The commitment to Rambus is a long term one and no one has indicated to me that they are willing to change their plans anytime soon.”
“I don't think this will damage the credibility of Rambus,” said Subodh Toprani, VP of business development at Rambus Inc. “Any other solution will only have an incremental improvement whereas Rambus will greatly enhance the PC experience. That is where our strength is and will be. We believe PC OEMs will want these performance enhancements.”
One of the benefits of PC-133 is that it would be cheap and easy to make, being just an extension of the PC-100 SDRAM technology that virtually all DRAM vendors are set up to produce, said Jeff Mailloux, Micron Electronics Inc. DRAM marketing manager.
“What this has really done in the long term is it has allowed the other technologies to show their stuff to a wider audience and has gotten most of the technologies back on the same schedule again,” said Micron's Mailloux. “If not for an Intel endorsement, the playing field would be even now.”
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