I'm not privy to any information regarding the lawsuit. I first learned about the dismissal on the message boards. I even prefaced my statement by saying "If true." I have confirmed today that the consolidated class action lawsuit was indeed dismissed. All it takes is a call to the company. I believe a press release will be issued, but I don't know when. I have not seen a copy of the judgement and have no idea if one will be made available. Your best bet might be to ask one of the lead attorneys for the class.
I seriously doubt that the dismissal was related to the price. That is the only thing this suit had going for it. Remember that Zonagen reached a high of 45 after its secondary offering at 30. Price decline is not enough. Some kind of wrongdoing needed to be found. These attorneys are experienced and very smart. If fraud was there, they would have found it. I think it is very significant that this suit never made it to trial. It further validates that this company is operating in good faith, whatever you might think about its products.
Some shorts have made the argument that since some longs saw significance in the 2Q 98 sales to Mexico, it means that Vasomax is ineffective. I don't believe that, but if you do, go check out what the shorts were saying on this board when this lawsuit was filed. If longs are proven wrong, it is a significant event. Why is that not the case with those shorts who were crowing about all the suits being filed, all of which took Asensio's words almost verbatim? Asensio purported to have done tremendous research and have solid scientific evidence. As we now see, he had nothing. He was the only "analyst" to bash Zonagen and he orchestrated a bear attack that is still being felt today. Much of what you believe about Zonagen is based on his arguments.
I agree that the three factors you refer to are of primary importance, but I disagree with everything you put in parentheses.
1. Efficacy. About 30-40% of men in the mild to moderate category will benefit from Vasomax. This is what the data has consistently shown, with statistical significance.
2.Approval? As has been shown here with a link to the FDA web site, about 70% of drugs that reach this stage, get approval. Personally, I believe the chance is greater than that. You, I'm sure, thinks it's less. But 70% is the average.
3.Will it sell? I think it will get considerable free media publicity as the first pill to compete with Viagra. We'll see it on CNBC, normal people will see it on Jerry Springer. There will be debate on its efficacy and Schering will position it as a milder, safer pill that won't help everyone, but is the logical first choice for those concerned about Viagra's side effects or want something faster acting. Schering's sales and promotion machine will get in full gear.
This might be a good place to go long, if one can accept the risk.
Good luck,
Bruce |
