Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (41922)	4/9/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

great post Brent; Simmons exposes the "Glut" fraud..../ +SSB link ******************************************************************************** The most important excerpt from Matt Simmons excellent article: the missing barrels - ie: garbage in & garbage out...someone send NOESIS a copy; this entire ''Glut Crisis'' was the largest $ fraud ever perpetuated in Economic History....however; it allowed Greenspan & Rubin et al to micro manage the Global Economy to a soft landing....imho - this was by design. << I find this missing barrel issue simply incredible. There should be a lot of red faces throughout the entire body of petroleum experts if they prove to be an illusion. In my opinion, it would be virtually impossible for these barrels to exist. There was never the tanker capacity to get them across the water and no tank farm capacity large enough to store so much extra supply. It should have been easy for people to add up the numbers. If there is any excuse to why so few analysts even understood this issue, the drop in oil prices was so violent that most people simply assumed the world had to be in the midst of an oil flood. Even the IEA analysts last September woefully wrote that petroleum data was getting way less reliable, as their missing barrels refused to show up. But, they stated that "a touchstone in times of such data uncertainty is to simply look at the screen." In other words, the barrels must be hiding, otherwise, the price would not be so low. As I read this pathetic plea, my response was that it represented a classic case of circular logic. We might have accidentally created a gigantic house of mirrors where bad data creates shorts on oil contracts, which brings prices down, which creates even more bearish data!>> ***************************************************************************** Concerning buying these high debt/leveraged companies as they blow off ie: FLC HMAR KEG etc. per KEG's release thjs a.m. announcing a new financing agreement; the key thought here is that the enviroment for refinancing seems to be positive in Financial Circles. Most of these companies are successfully restructuring their financial agreements. HMAR's situation is intriguing and I expect them to also be successfull in obtaining a new agreement from their lenders. I am a buyer here @ $ 1 1/2ish as it is a virtual ''option'' on their survial - upside on positive news is a near double imho for HMAR. - again; speculative/high risk ie:only for funds one is willing to lose entirely... I like HMAR much more than KEG fwiw. from KEG's release: << In response to recent depressed industry conditions, the company's senior lending group has approved a new covenant package which provides additional financial flexibility, even if such depressed industry conditions were to continue. >> ***************************************************************************** here is the link to free research access to Salomon Smith Barney: smithbarneyresearch.com

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