Assuming a subscriber growth from 330K to 450K, that s a 36% increase while the stock price has risen 110% in the same period!
If we assume that the installation rate increases by at least 20% per qtr (new employees, more experience, PC with pre-installed NIC cards, etc.), then the number of new subscribers should grow something like 119k, 143k, 171K, and 205K per Qtr. That would increase the number of subscribers by 638K + 330K (end of last year) = 968K. I think the 20% per qtr increased rate of installations is consecutive. So ATHM can reach the 1M subscriber goal by year-end.
Now, what is so special about the 1 Mil target? Is this the number the analyses are focusing on? If the new Internet math is equating stock value with subscriber growth, then we can expect at least a 200% growth in subscribers for FY99. If the stock price grows at the same rate, then we can see $300/sh pre-split by the end of 4th Qtr.
Can it be that simple? Is there industry consensus on valuing a internet company based on subscriber growth? Are we developing our own benchmark?
Comments?
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