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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: bill meehan who wrote (32075)4/9/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (2) of 86076
 
I've been noticing the market broadening a bit the past few days.

The RUT has moved back above the 40 WK.

market internals have been historically very sloppy but if they turn here and bounce off of the latest low on the A/d then .....ho ho ho

Bob Neurock has pointed out how important market trend changes have happened at the start of each quarter for a few years now. If we looked back at January 8, the beginning of the last quarter, there was a market top which has held to this day on the unweighted market indices, such as the Value Line Cash, which falls on January 8 and is still down almost 6% from that high. Go back another quarter from there and you reach October 8 of 1998, an important turn for virtually all indices. Going back another quarter takes you to July 8, the advance-decline line saw a secondary rally top out on July 8 of last year and the advance-decline line then sell almost without stopping into the October 8 low. Another quarter back takes you to the top of the advance-decline line on April 3, that was a multi-decade top that we saw on April 3 of last year. Now the big question becomes, if there is a big change in trend here, even an important one, will it be to see the advance-decline line finally turn up or the high cap indices turn down?

Market history suggests the latter but a parabolic bull move may just have had
a running correction, from the Jan 8th and Feb 1st peaks, and now charge higher ---that's the bull Case and believe me they always have one

IF we are making new highs on Wed then this APril 6-9th window will be rapidly closing .
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