Besides the fact that my previous post
was nonsensical, there is an obvious
error, I did not mean to say anti-angio
inhibitor, lose the 'anti'.
I guess I want to communicate the bewilderment
I sometimes feel when trying to figure out which
in a group of stocks is the one I most want to own.
It is easy to lose sight of what matters--placing
your bet on the company which appears to have the
most science, patents, managment focus.
You cant just say 'gene therapy' and expect an easy
list of stocks to jump out at you--the simple exercise of
reading the threads, the press releases, the issuances
of patents etc is not enough to identify which to buy.
This realization dawned on me recently when I saw a list
of companies working in the area of signal transduction.
There were 34 entries--and while a few programs did
not seem terribly interesting to me, what do I know?!
Anyway, getting back to that basic set of companies
which I sort of spit out in the wacky post...
I can see that Vical clearly has the lead in clinical
work...and yet I can easily imagine that the problem
is so complex, as to give the laggards an advantage.
Certainly Ariad is slow to begin clinical work--and
maybe that is smart? There has been plenty of criticism
of Ariad management...but maybe those Nobel laureates
are clever enough to know that the answers are still
a few more years away--and then they will start more
clinical work. Who knows?
One thing for sure, I think there has to be a lot more
consolidation, where the research oriented companies get
absorbed by the larger biotechs. This has got to happen,
the body of knowledge in biotechnology is going to grow
so fast that efficiencies gained through M&A will pay big.
I will know which gene therapy stocks had 'the goods'
when the offers come. I do take back my comment that
Chiron should go after Onyx...I see now after reviewing
the thread, that Chiron actually sold some ONXX last
year, so it will have to be somebody else for that one.
(my self imposed restriction of one post a day--so that
I think a little bit more before I type...does not go
into place until midnight my local time...I am having
my last fling tonight, heheh) |
