I noticed Rod that you failed to mention the other write up in the Red Herring about Inprise which was a positive, if short, comment on the software development tools market.
>>Meanwhile, competitors like Inprise (INPR) have leapt ahead in the software-development tools market...<<
The two articles read together might give quite a bi-polar impression on the naive Inprise small investor psyche. As always posters on this BB only accentuate the point they wish to make, not an accurate accumulation of the facts and research which can often lead to contradictory conclusions.
I doubt very seriously Inprise is in it's "death knell." With ongoing revenues of $180M a year the company is far from going out of business. I do believe there is a problem on the enterprise side as there are problems for all enterprise companies at this point in time. The tools side will carry Inprise until the enterprise industry turns around late this year or early next. Does this mean Inprise share price will grow past $10/sh on it's own merits this year? I do not foresee the growth that can justify such a move. Will it lay down and die? Get serious. I believe the market will stabilize for Inprise in the $4 - $5.25 per share range until it proves it can grow on the enterprise side when the demand for enterprise software improves within the next year.
I do believe a buyout is a strong possibility at this point however. The market cap is relatively cheap and forward looking companies with deep pockets might be looking ahead to a rebound in the enterprise market and think now is a good time to take what they want out of Inprise/Borland.com. I do not believe Del just up and quit, especially under the circumstances he left. No warning, no transition. Del is many things, but even he isn't ignorant that CEO's have resumes too. His abrubt departure leads me to believe this was the equivalent of a temper tantrum after company xyz went to the Board offering a deal that Del refused because there were no plans for him and Kathleen at the acquiring company. This, of course, is one of two scenarios I envision. The other is that they just flat out blew-up this quarter. We will know about the quarter in a few weeks. I am leaning toward buyout. If I am correct then I expect Del to say when asked by some publication that he quit because company xyz went around him to the Board and he steadfastly refused a buyout on the grounds that Inprise's future value after the enterprise market turned greatly exceeded the buyout price. He thought it would be a disservice to shareholders to let company xyz rob them of blah, blah, blah.
Note the following...I am on an unusually long, statistically rare streak of making flat out bad calls in my speculations at the present time. I blew a $96,000 profit off a $4,000 call purchase two weeks ago that I turned down against my gut feeling because I am so rattled by my record over the past nine months. Interpretation...they probably blew the quarter......<g> |
