dpeters,
Good question!!
I believe is was actually NSM(?) that was first to market with the x86 architecture but fumbled the ball...look at them now?
You bring up a great question and the answer is not easy, but I'll give it a shot. 5-10-15-20 years ago any head start in a tech field was a BIG BIG head start. These days, tech moves so fast that a 2 year lead by one company can be snuffed out in a month by others. Look at the graphics market over the last few years.... the leader there now is who? SIII, ATYT, CRUS, Nvida, TDFX, TRID, TDDDF, yada yada yada. Look at the xDSL market, there has to be 25+ players there with 5-10 quality ones. Look at the modem market history, USRX was king....king for a day anyway. Look the MPEG/DVD market...etc.
....the pattern is obvious.....this pattern will repeat.
Now it's about a 1/100,000 (or more) chance that any one chip company can initiate a niche and then dominate that sector for very long. Sure you have INTC and a few other niche players but the chances of hooking "a big one" are slim, IMO. BRCM is a great company, I'm not arguing that point...the point is there are plenty of great companies nipping at their heals. Management execution is critical & so far BRCM has done well...any minor slip up though and "bam" your dog meat on Wall Street.
I'm going with the odds.
On the TA front: Sure this thing could run to 100 again. Why not?? All the Nets are running big time and BRCM actually has a PE! I'm flexible in trading it. It's going to take some "event" to trigger a big slide in BRCM. The event could be news from a competitor, etc etc.. |
