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Technology Stocks : Inktomi (INKT)
INKT 13.12-0.8%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Craig A who wrote (1067)4/10/1999 11:21:00 AM
From: Ron Kline  Read Replies (1) of 1945
 
My thoughts on some of what has been said is yes holding through the ups and down can really pay off and using timing to jump in and out will probably hinder performance. Why because if you always buy on the breakouts and sell into strength you will miss the difference between when you think is the top and what that high actually is. Second it's not guaranteed you will buy it back during a breakout. You may not have cash and bought something else, or you might not believe it's for real. The first stocks to breakout after a correction are tough because you haven't seen a solid reversal of the market. Or if you do buy back you buy less than you owned before (this is very common). All of this translates to under-performing the buy and hold approach.

But I still believe that buying at the right time is important because you want to start out on the right footing, and not lose your original cost, even if it may only take some months to come back. Why? Because how can you feel up to longterm holding when you start out underwater. The initial purchase I think should be started with technicals in mind. INKT was an obvious buy this last week. Once you are nicely in the money then the hold strategy works really well. Another thing one can do is sell enough shares to get your original cost out and then ride the rest through ups and downs. Lets face it half of investing is psychological and if you know your cost is $0 (doing as above) the less chance some stupid downgrade or market correction will cause you to panic from your original idea that you think INKT is going to do well over time (not 2mo but 2 years or longer).

Lastly the people who predict doom and gloom are the real losers from this because they insist that they are not going to play the market winners until they see some sort or crash in them or the market. The better way to look at is "what is the stock or market doing now". Do you think I believed INKT was going to be the next stock to do what it has done? Hell no!! and I think most were surprised how quickly it started to kick butt. The market says the story and it's those who listen and capitalize on it that are the smart investors.

Just some thoughts,
Ron
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