RockyC,
With all due respect, I am confused by your posting. Do you work or own shares in AMAT?
Everything stated on this thread is well known in the semiconductor industry and the community at large. SFAM-IPEC has a well established supply base (see INTC, MOT, Seimens, AMD, Micron) and while there is a transition to Cu taking place, this has led only to evals by some semi players over the past two years. Eval wins do NOT be definition led to volume production orders? Unless I missed something while out on vacation or the industry has changed, what large production volume wins has AMAT announced recently? Furthermore, do you really believe that Intel, TI, Micron, NSC, AMD, Samsung et al. are all going to allow AMAT to become an even larger gorilla in the way Microsoft has become in the software industry? NVLS exist because they make competitive tools, and because the industry wants an alternative to AMAT. SFAM-IPEC, moreover, does NOT have to get 50% of the market (or 50% of eval wins at this juncture) to become profitable and an appreciable stock.
What is the basis to your statement that SFAM-IPEC's tools are not competitive? With respect to Cu, the issue of slurry and platen are relevant over the short term - particularly with respect to SFAM's offerings as opposed to IPEC's I believe - but even then these are NOT make or break issues with respect to the true ramp up for Cu. Large volume production orders for copper are not coming tomorrow contrary to AMAT's PR machine. These are the orders that truly matter.
You state "AMAT has won >60% of the recent wave of Korean orders, probably more like 75% of them." Maybe I missed this, or was on vacation, or AMAT's PR machine decided to give everyone else a break, but who/what/where/how many tools? WHat kind of orders? How about Samsung?
You also state "The Auriga is not superior for anything if you look at the order rate in the industry right now." Maybe I am not understanding you here, but why would you measure superiority in a down cycle by order against AMAT the Gorilla who has been giving its CMP tools away as part of package deals? The entire semiconductor equipment sector, let alone order for CMP tools, have only started to rebound and as far as I know. To date, I am unaware of any large production volume orders have been proffered with tight delivery schedules. So, with all due respect, what are you are referring to here? I apologize if I am missing something but I haven't found a sufficient evidence to date to support you general conclusion of SFAM-IPEC's death and dismemberment (:~)), but welcome and be much appreciative for information to the contrary citing chapter and verse.
Looking forward to your response.....SemiBull
Big Long on SFAM (and a smaller long on AMAT) |
