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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (56674)4/10/1999 12:25:00 PM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
El: I had a target of $100 and a split for the Spring 1999 and possibly in mid-January 1999 (but, as I have always stressed, I would not sit in the stock, till then , but trade it). That estimate was based on information provided by the company and subjected to reasonable doubt. When I made that estimate you were hoping for something more substantial than $55 in 2Q 1999 and that was the reason you gave for holding - so we were not so far apart.

I am certain that this stock will easily exceed your new estimate of $39, if you are giving me as much as the rest of the year, and I also think it will exceed its current high of $51, at least on a spike.
I base this on the assumption that the stock will make earnings of $1.40-$1.60 in 1999 (which must be an unsupported guess until we find out what the company has to say) and on prospects for 2000 of $2.OO to $2.50.

It is annoying that all of our estimates and all the estimates of all analysts have been rendered meaningless by the change in the information given out by the company. To go from $10.2 billion to $9.75 billion revenues between January and mid-February and then from $9.75 to $9.4 in the next six weeks suggest very high level incompetence in the company's ability to understand its own operations.
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