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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Aubrey B. Calvin who wrote (26603)4/10/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: ToySoldier  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Aubrey,

If this stock hits $80 it would purely be because NOVL is accepted by Wall Street and the industry to be an "Internet Stock" and it would receive all the stock appreciating frenzy that goes along with it. In this situation, $80 is a strong possibility.

BUT!

I am sticking to the belief that $30-$35 is the range for NOVL by y/e. I am a bit nervous that my prediction is a bit conservative and $40 is very possible by y/e.

I can't see NOVL being transitioned from a fundamentals-based stock to an Internet-based stock in Wall Street's eyes. There is a potential for this transition to happen if NOVL can aggressively promote and deliver on its Digital-Me and I-Chain initiatives. BUT! when it comes to NOVL delivering on radical initiatives like "Service Portal" and "e-commerce" initiatives, I would have to say that history does not provide optimism in this area.

It was NOVL Senior Management who stated in January that they wanted to push NOVL to move at an "Internet Speed". Unfortunately, I feel that some of these same senior management cannot practice what they preach. I think that people like Chris and Eric can deliver on this "Internet Speed" commitment, but some others like Slitz may not.

I think that Digital-Me scares Slitz since it is such a radical departure from their "FOCUS" objectives. I dont think Schmidt is scared of it, but I am worried that Slitz's might be resisting the "Internet Speed" deployment of Digital-Me.

I think I-Chain will be more successful for NOVL since they are looking for a large partner(s) that could set the direction on the use and deployment of NOVL's I-Chain technology. This would likely be perceived by NOVL as a less risky initiative than Digital-Me which is going to have to be lead by NOVL.

If these two technologies actually are deployed in the manner that people on this board would like to see them deployed, it will not show its face until late this year or early next year. By that time, the Y2K market and industry stale-out will be occurring. This would negate any forward momentum of the NOVL stock.

So in my long-winded opinion - there is a slight chance of NOVL seeing $80 but the likely aggressive high IMO is $40. $35 is my predicted high.

Toy
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