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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?
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To: Tom Byron who wrote (5196)4/10/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Tom Byron  Read Replies (1) of 82012
 
the xau weekly chart i posted yesterday with the 89 ema and the slow stochastics at the bottom is available for viewing at

Message 8816205

note that this xau index chart is a "line" chart (based on the closing price of the xau on each friday).

to my eyes, it shows that the bear market in the xau began the 1st week of june, 1996. the 89 ema shortly thereafter has stayed above the weekly closes. several attempts (impulse waves up) were made by the xau to penetrate that 89 ema with no success.

my thinking is that the bear will end when we get a weekly close above that 89 ema line....that is only one of several signals that the bear market will have ended. (maybe, a conservative signal)

i have also drawn on my own chart a down channel for this xau chart. first i put in the top line which touches the xau at that june, 1996 high and nexts touches the xau at the end of the impulse wave up at the end of sept, 1998.

put in the parallel bottom line of the channel with touches at dec, 1995 low and the dec, 1997 low..(some folks might want to draw in the channel lines differently).

anyway, rights now that xau is hanging around the top part of the down channel since oct, 1998 (about 6 months)..i've mentioned previously that we need to put in one more low on the weekly xau and one more low on the monthly before this bear market is over.

TIMEWISE we have about 2 more months to go on my cycle and 9 waves work before we reach the end of this bear.

PRICEWISE my reading of the waves say that we only have about 6 weeks to go to the end of the bear.

the question in my mind is will the xau go to the "bottom" line of this channel before it ends (putting that xau in the LOW 20's) or will we continue to remain near the top of this down channel and only put in a "dip" low enough to get my new lows on the weekly and monthly charts to end the bear.

that my current thinking. (subjecti to change at any time, if not sooner)

googootom @running out of my reserved time on the computer here at the library....:)
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