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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis

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To: Q. who wrote (2179)4/10/1999 2:40:00 PM
From: Ocote  Read Replies (2) of 2506
 
John and board:

I've been experimenting with a variation in your approach to the low
RS screen, the problem is I don't have either QI or Telescan. No
matter, I'll give my preliminary results based on QP scan and if it
seems to hold any promise, I may look for someone with QI to backtest further.

Concept: Find companies whose relative strength has fallen the most
within an optimal period of time.

Arbitrary
Time period to measure fall = 100 days
Sort by max fall in RS
Start date 4/10/98
Stop dates: 4/9/99, 12/15/98 (avoid January effect)

Results

04/98 12/98 04/99
CBST 5.125 2.875 -43.90% 3.188 -37.80%
CFMT 11.25 7.25 -35.56% 8.25 -26.67%
DIGL 5.406 2.281 -57.81% 3.312 -38.73%
FSLA 10.675 7.5 -29.74% 7.75 -27.40%
GFI 6.812 2.938 -56.87% 1.088 -84.03%
HARB 12.688 10.875 -14.29% 11.98 -5.58%
-39.69% -36.70%


The current list of companies under such a screen are:

tick name rs rs' delta
TGX THERAGENICS CORP COM 3 95 92
INIS INTERNATIONAL ISOTOPES 4 93 89
SYNT SYNTEL INC COM 1 90 89
BEST BEST SOFTWARE INC COM 10 98 88
MAST MASTECH CORP COM 6 94 88
PGNS PATHOGENESIS CORP COM 10 98 88
ASDV ASPECT DEV INC COM 5 91 86
INSO INSO CORP COM 8 94 86
SEGU SEGUE SOFTWARE INC COM 12 97 85

I would be interested in backtesting this over a number of years, and
to optimize the arbitrary time period used in the screen, add the
P/B and P/S filters as you do.

Ocote
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