Lynn...I think by Tuesday (Intel reporting) there will be much more evidence of how the sector is really doing.....Compaq's problems are largely Compaq-specific: (Likely 4th Quarter Inventory Overhang, Overly Optimistic Projection for Q1, Dell's more price-aggressive attitude in Q1; Compaq not responding well/Caught off-guard, and PII to PIII transition, and transition from indirect to direct not going well)..
Demand for the quarter (overall, industy) might be a bit light, but is likely close to normal unit growth for a Q1....This will be clear soon...
Monday morning will be ugly, but I think you will see buying in Dell/Gateway in the afternoon..Don't know about CPQ...
Remember, the market (especially traders) have a short memory...Fast forward to late April/May...what if Compaq comes out forecasting stronger Q2, Dell does well, Reports from IDC/Dataquest are good...money will flow back into the sector..many not to past levels, but will flow nonetheless....
After all, I don't know a lot of folks who thought Dell would hit 48 again before the recent analyst meeting...it came back pretty quick, IMO...thanks to CPQ, its gonna have to do it once again... |
