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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.04

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: donald sew who wrote (10521)	4/10/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Just added weekly index charts to the MDA site at homestead.com then follow my link. Some were existing charts but others I had to copy over for ease of future updates so not all lines, forks etc copied over yet from my existing ones. Still it should help put some perspective on the recent rallies. I wrote Vitas a long post last night about my perceptions of the market but SI squided it into oblivion. I will try to recap it again but for the time being... border line hammer top formations on the DOW, to a lesser extent SPX & OEX. Also bearish top formations on BTK Biotech index, DRG and BIX but not BKX. JPN Japan index is fast approaching downward trendline years long which should make the next few weeks extremely interesting. The indicators on the TXX tech index are turning downward and both the daily and weekly US Dollar index have triggered sell signals. The weekly Brokers index signals a sell and the leading index of this rally the XTC Telecom just triggered a sell alert also. NOTE That my sell triggers are often just a signal to tighten stops so I am not calling for a crash but at least a slowdown or halt in the rally for these indexes. The XTC has been extremely strong and a short would be about as risky a bet as they come. I don't have weekly confirmation but on the Daily charts, the HCX healthcare, tranny DTX, Airline, XOI but not OIX, RLX retail all look pretty good. The GAX Gaming index is loooking good but is fast approaching a long term downtrend line. The RUX broke out finally which was starting to give some credence to this rally but of course that was before the CPQ warning that will at least bleed over to other PC related companies. The XNG natural gas is looking very good at this time. The big question is as some of the PC related stocks drop next week. Will the money come off the table or will it rotate into other sectors. This is of course assuming that they do sell off. As someone already noted, the talk around SI we have seen is when to buy the dip, not how to get out alive. What affect will the dollar dropping have on the market if my signal proves correct? These are more things I still have to ponder but for now I must gop to work. Good LUck, Lee

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