Paul (LVC) and Tx for compliments
Of course, the human memory is benign and one tends to forget the bum choices.
In retirement I find it most satisfying that one remembers the heroic accomplishments achieved from time to time . One generally knows there were worries, but somehow the memory of the worries and of the crises recedes. Nice of memory to do that.
I will take a look at FLEX and MRA which latter I did not find in Value Line. I still find VL a very efficient way to scan. Also to get background quicker than on the Internet.
What criteria do you use for screening ? I think I told you, since 1973 I use Low P/E with a high rate of profit growth. Often simply : The P/E number must be substantially smaller than ROE average % number over 10 years. There ain't many.
That turned up a few in 1973, the five best of which I bought. 3 did very well and Teledyne turned out to be a 40-banger. Four years of MIT cost me $ 1600.
I also learned at that time: You Can Not Loose more than you put in, but there is no limit on the upside. So, it pays to put work into the picking.
Some guy on Yahoo BEAM blasted me for being boring and I told him Click on “Next” but two came to my defense, one saying “you can bore me anytime”.
Well, I will learn how to behave on these here boards, maybe pontificate less, except on Value Investing and Buffettology.
By Monday I have to decide in which form to put more money into that freight train, Laser Vision Correction. Too bad, way-out Options only exist after the stock has been up there. These stocks never have. What to do ?
In the LVC business Word-of-Mouth advertising has reached a critical mass and now TV is starting to cover it. This week an Am Soc of Cataract and Refractory Surgeons is meeting in Seattle. www.ascrs.org Check Track L !
I found out that there are 580 lasers in the US, each with a capacity of 600 procedures. Humans have two eyes, 15 appointments a day, a month booked in advance. Wolfie's Ophtho did 530 in February.
Now, do your math. $ 250 / procedure. VISX 30 million shares, 75 % market, Summit (BEAM) the rest. That's why they behave the way they do.
The Centers, LCAV LVCI LZRC have 120, 120 and 175 procedures per month and laser, roughly. LCAV had 90 in the previous quarter, hired a new marketing guy (Ex LensCrafters, Am Home Pr) in 9/98. Market Cap / # Centers is lowest at LCAV.
A center breaks even at 100 procedures a month, I read. Go figure the next 100. Each $ 2500 less 300 for the Ophtho, 250 for VISX and less the tax on income. Multiply by 12.
So, I finally took the plunge Tuesday April 6, at $ 4 for LCAV, after deciding not to put equal money into all 3. Decided for pick, not spread.
Fri closing: 6 ..15/32 ....up 61 %. ...Unrealized, mind you. Beat all the others, for those 3 days anyway.
So, you can see why I am thinking of plunging more. The risk is patent suits, but that will be a while, while the freight train continues.
Never been a Momentum Investor in my life. But something is going on here, I am convinced. So, I am letting you guys here know about this heretic thought and action of mine. Hope you will not excommunicate me.
Walter in HK |
