no rose colored glasses on your nose
Considering buying CIEN but not during downdraft... constantly amazed at people who ignore technicals and wonder why a stock falls... because it shows weakness and gathers momentum... support levels and moving averages are like either ledges on a cliff or floors on a building... fall thru one and check the next... markets are momentum engines that feed on incoming money and outgoing money... better games in town
this puppy sat on its 50day MA and could not get it up... if you aint got it up, the lady leaves... it was blown down by a simple breeze of acquisition hangover, if not a wind of impatience concerning endless horizons of imminent revenues... now it sits on its longer term moving average... I see support at 17 then 12 then 9... also its Relative Strength Indicator is negative, and not nearly oversold... why would big players like funds or institutions pick it up when it is so small, unlike Oracle with revs and eps?
I was amazed to see CIEN bounce up to 30 AFTER Q1 announcmt when mgmt said "no reason to expect any improvemt in revenues or earnings in foreseeable future"... can you say DEAD CAT BOUNCE?... next comes the sad retest of lows
Robert, you are right on... I want to get a position sometime for its technology, but not now when it has yet to plumb bottom... I would short on any weak recovery to the MA's... fundamentalists are always scratching their heads for reasons, as though stocks move logically... they move emotionally and momentumally... holders might be pissed and disappointed
when I do wear a fundy hat, I suspect sellers wanted to get out before some big holders got their acq payoff shares... or now that it is more certain that profits are not nearby, sell the news of growing certainty... or three chefs in the kitchen make for risky soup... or the debt is now so deep that takeovers becoming more unlikely due to implicit higher hidden cost... VC's exiting Board is a plus in my mind, regarded as a firing for poor guidance in past year... their exit check got smaller as deserved
this company reminds me of Digital: great technology, pathetic marketing, only add mountains of debt that never plagued DEC... unfortunate business trend in last few years where the big take the whole pie... if not from contract wins, then via acquisitions of others who eat large remaining pie pieces
technology isnt enough
an opinion of a poor tech sharecropper
/ jim willie |
