Dan, re ..."worried about the PC industry's weakness."
From 1987 until Feb 99, I worked for a large Japanese firm that supplies Dell, Cpq, Sunw, Gateway, etc.. with components used in pcs and workstations. In 1998 and 1999 we were pressed to keep up with the demand - order sizes kept growing - and Dell and Sun are very shrewd customers.
My friends and family are typical pc consumers and it seems every month one of my pals upgrades by buying a laptop or a box. In another year I'll probably just start all over again with a new cpu.
New technologies with new functions available end up sparking demand (recycling the same customers and adding new ones). So, in general I'm optimistic that a well-run supplier has opportunities to add to their share of a market. Maybe there are plateaus in aggregate pc demand, but we see Dell moving into more profitable storage mkt and expanding sales to new regions around the globe.... and perhaps picking up market share from their competitors. I'm saying nothing new, but that's why I'm not 'worried' per se.
of course, my empirical observations may be irrelevant for future trend prediictions.
I am doubtful that the rise in stock price which occurred from January 98 to January 99 will be repeated... but that feeling is based on a psychological guess - that few stars remain the darlings of the media forever, despite their talents.
I'm holding the stock because I can (I don't need to sell) and it's just part of my buy and hold portfolio.
I'm wondering how stable Dell computer co would be if something happpened to Michael Dell. (is there another energy force within the company?) but otherwise, I expect to see a modest but acceptable rise in the stock's value over the course of the year. I like the fact that you raise this question and look forward to reading other replies. |
