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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ)
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To: Captain Jack who wrote (30227)4/11/1999 11:11:00 AM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein  Read Replies (1) of 31646
 
Investing vs. Trivial Pursuit...

BW said "I have been right trading this more often than you. Fact: I was right both times...in a big way.>>

Stock trading is one of those games where "percent correct" on stock price movement" is not a very good measure. Keeping track of "days correct" may be the winning strategy in Trivial Pursuit and Jeopardy, but in stocks, it is irrelevant. You can be 90% correct on stock price over a defined period of time, but a big stock price move during the 10% of the time you are wrong can kill you. You can be 90% wrong about stock prive over a defined time period, and still hit big during the 10% right period.

Stocks make their biggest moves in a small period of time. If you remove one month of the highest gain days from the Dow, total return is akin to interest on a money market fund. The lesson: You have to buy and hold to make sure you are in the stock during the big move.

So, Wexler has been 100% correct about TAVA stock price YTD. So What? If he is wrong for just one week, I may double my money and he may have to cover his short (if he hasn't already, just being dramatic here <g>). I will have been correct only 5% of the time, but so much better off.

DocStone
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