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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 672.04-1.7%Nov 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: Compadre who wrote (10482)4/11/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
bears are counting their chicks already (after the CPQ announcement). They may well be right this time. What are your thoughts for Monday?

Jaime: Before I respond to your post I would like to just throw my two cents in on the discussion about TA. Over the last couple of days there have been some interesting posts regarding different approaches to TA in today's markets. The point was made that if everyone is looking at the same charts and expecting the same results, doesn't that impact the effectiveness of TA in today's markets. On the surface that statement makes a great deal of sense. But I think one only has to follow this thread for a short time, or any handful of TA experts out there to realize we often do not SEE the same things. Think about it, how many times have you seen the experts (Murphy, Bollinger, Bloch, Favors) interviewed on the same day, all having completely different outlooks on the market. These guys are the pros, if they're not seeing eye to eye it must tell you that chart patterns can mean different things to different people. Besides opinions can and often are influenced by personal experiences and outside factors. Like seeing a pattern on the chart that looks bullish but letting the a-d line skew your read on things. My own personal opinion on this subject is that traditional TA methods in today's markets STILL work. Regardless of whether or not you're trading a internet stock or a big blue chip. Granted, the time factor for how patterns play out for AMZN may be a lot shorter than for a stock like KO. Nevertheless, the charts still manage to capture the daily struggles between the bulls and the bears. Perhaps the difficulities of applying TA when trading has more to do with how you arrive at your conclusions than the validity of TA itself. That's why I think it's dangerous to make comments like "TA doesn't apply to these net stocks" or "There are times when TA does not work." Beliefs like these will ultimately affect your performance simply because you have planted the seeds of doubt when using TA as a trading tool. Just some thoughts.

Jaime I am going to post this so I don't loose it. In my next post I will respond to your question.

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