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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked
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To: Tim Luke who wrote (26219)4/11/1999 12:44:00 PM
From: Nazbuster  Read Replies (2) of 90042
 
Tim, I had a 1/2 hour argument with my Aunt's full-service broker in NY a few weeks ago when I saw she bought Dell in my Aunt's account at 100 (pre-split) when it pulled back from 110. I objected.

Her thinking is that Dell is a premier company, she's made a lot of money for her clients on it, and that it will recover to new highs. My thinking is that she's living in the past.

The PC industry has finally reached a point where Dell will no longer be able duplicate the growth rate they have had in the past. The advent of under $1000 PCs has put price pressure on the market. Consumers are looking for bargains. Other vendors are moving to build-to-order. In the enterprise market, CPQ will make progress as a result of having existing relationships via DEC. DEC/CPQ can provide in-house service whereas Dell is strictly 3rd party.

Personally, I'm not likely to touch either stock having been burned before investing in companies whose products become "commodities" and subject to extreme price pressure.

I wish all the longs well, but I think even Dell's chart looks like it will have trouble piercing the old high. It really looks to be starting a downtrend. The next few weeks are critical for the stock. It has to pierce through 55.

Here is a summary of recent analyst ratings... Not exactly targeting a price of $150: nordby.com

I find this one especially interesting, since this is my Aunt's broker's firm:

2/12/99 Salomon Smith Barney reiterates neutral-high risk, comfortable with estimates, increased competition on large corporate accounts could hurt revenue, EPS due on 2/16
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