net--
here is the thing...
WSTL technology is on the implementation side. there really isnt much (its my understanding ...if i'm wrong please correct me) original R&D going on.
HOWEVER, thats the kind of R&D they need to be doing. its kind of futile to compete with ALA on chipsets, etc. PAIR has proven that rather conclusively.
what a lot of people dont understand about AWRE is that they dont really have a business model other than licensing revenue from IP with a very limited shelf life (which TXN may decide to step on at any time). now, so they dont compete with others and so their DMT implementation becomes standard, they had to license to EVERYONE. now, when you do that you do usually become the standard. however, the value of what your licensing DECREASES, and it makes it difficult for anyone who has licensed to turn a profit.
in short, it becomes a commodity. ask the memory makers about commodity markets. now, none of this really matters...the perception now is that AWRE has the best IP in the industry (which is, of course, horseshit). the problem with perception is that when its wrong, things tend to go the other way fast and hard when the perception is finally shown to be false.
i remember the days when WSTL would go up 2 or 3 points in a day. i also remember the sell offs. i know it will probably go higher, especially if some real hype sets in. i also know it will be lower.
now, i think AWRE is way overvalued and i think WSTL is undervalued (note i did not modify undervalued). maybe they will move closer to each other. maybe not.
i dont really know.
good luck to all,
trey |
