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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega
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To: David Colvin who wrote (8923)4/11/1999 5:52:00 PM
From: Ken Pomaranski  Read Replies (2) of 10072
 
<< Note big jump in Q4 1999. This is Clik! really kicking in. (500,000 units in that quarter). That would be quite a feat!

Also, why did you estimate $2.2 billion in revenues for 2000 when I only estimated $2.0 billion in revenues for the same period. Where is all that revenue going to come from if the Clik! drive is DOA? Did you have some other yet to be announced product in mind? >>

Good questions.

My model assummed a 'best case' scenario for Iomega. (Check my assumption lists). I give Iomega a 2-5% chance of beating this model. I also stated that my model would estimate earnings / revenues too high if CLIK! failed to come through. Also, I gave an allowance (buffer) for some new product, like the PCMCIA CLIK!, which MAY have a positive impact (as I noted in my long post). Also, I modelled a big jump at the beginning (similar to ZIP) as the early adopters get in. I fully expect the CLIK! to follow the same general curve as the ZIP (smaller scale) which has the product dying in 2001-2002.

In other words, I 'padded' my estimate. ;)

I have a 50/50 model which I didn't post, because it was too grim.
This one has CLIK! failing miserably. I'm willing to give Iomega the benefit of the doubt for the time being, because Iomega 'may' have some smarter people than me working for them ;)

kp
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