Apr 5--9 weekly summary
On Easter weekend I have posted "10 reasons why SFE should go up "
Message 8654957
along with corresponding post
Message 8684827
In it I called for starting the coming rally now. And rally it did.
Date Apr. close %%% Vol,, 000
01 67 ---- 410,000
05 72 7.5 650,600
06 75.125 4.3 1098,100
07 80 6.7 824,300
08 93 16.25 1591,800
09 96.6 3.9 1,950,400
Total 29.4 44.1 1,223,040-average/daily
All this happened without any major news like chairman's aperance on CNBC
(which pushed price +25% on March 16)And I wonder what will happen when news will appear.
On the bulish "parabolic curve chart pattern"
Message 8747565
I think we have past a middle point of this curve with plenty room to go.
Sygnificant news posted Friday afternoon was Senior Partners Meeting
Message 8806897
and A .Tucker's new price target of $110 along with changing valuation method
(lightening on NAV) This target corresponds with M.P. calculations of $110-120
Message 8746799
SFE was picked as stock to buy by:
---telescan
---stockwinners.com
---technicaltraders.com
---bull-market.com They have Internet Portfolio,Agresive Growth, Portfolio but
interestingly enough they added SFE to their Solid Growth Portfolio (paid letter)
Friday high was shy $0.25 of psychological barrier of $100
quicken.com
This chart shows interesting buying/selling forces.It took 1.5 hrs to drop price from about
$94 to $87 (10;00 to 11:30) and about 0.5 hr. (11:30 to 12:00) to return to $ 94 level.
So what next?
1.SHORT TIME
This week will be harder. and will test the strenght of SFE After incredible broarder market advances there will be downdraft
and pausing.They say 5 days advance is follow by 2-3 days decline so SFE will not have market support on the beginning of the week.
and we will see if it can swim against current.,
Otherwise all good news are still ahead of us.
Split is a must.If they don't have enough shares it will take longer to get shareholders approval.
On the earnigs hunt I found only general Musser's statement about "strong growth this year"
fnews.yahoo.com
Earnings run can pick up later in the week
2.LONG TIME
After seeing this chart my last reservations against comparing CMGI and SFE disappeared.
quicken.com
They are moving identical.,The connection was made by traders and now they are both sympaty plays.
chart below shows that starting March 04 SFE mimicks CMGI.Till Apr 09 SFE was the follower.
Note the 1-2 days shift in time between CMGI moves and SFE follow-ups.On Apr.09 SFE took the lead
Hopefully for good.
quicken.com
Note also CMGI's 4 day ,150% split run (it was actually run from 200% to 600% in 2 weeks-see next chart)
Above observations entitle us more than ever before to tread CMGI as a reference point in speculating about SFE furure.
AND THIS IS SO BEAUTIFULL ABOUT SFE.-SO MANY REFERENCE POINTS (back door phenomenon,CMGI)
In Nov 98 when I bought CMGI when it was still best keept secred (like SFE now) for $ 62.625 there was no reference point.
They were first and they were just creating "Internet Incubators market"and no one know where it will go,
NOW WE NOW. And investing in SFE is so much safer,and predictible.
I didn't have any idea where it will go so I cashed out first 20% gain on CMGI.
quicken.com
Next thing I have noticed it was $120.So I waited and waited for pullback.Finally in March 99 I bought again for $ 376 split adjusted.,made few
bucks and switched to SFE.
CMGI 's once in a lifetime run from +100% to +1200% happened in relatively short time of 4 months (Dec.98-Apr.99) and it will not be repeated.
See why
fnews.yahoo.com
This doesn't mean it will not go 100% /year(maybe more on pullback) but never 1000%.
It is just to overvalued as opposed to SFE.
Even if SFE will take 8 instead of 4 months(like CMGI) to go just half of CMGI appreciation we still can have 500-600% gains.
I belive SFE's lifetime run has just begun
This time I am supressing hard my growing urge to cash lousy 150%.and waiting for 500%-1000%
wellab
PS.
ICG calculations:
1.50% stake in VERT = 1bln$
2.Sold Wisewire to lycos for 800,000 shares of LCOS X $100 = 80 mln $
3.sold Math-Logic for 3.2 mln shares of Excite X $ 150 = 525 mln $
Total = 1.6 bln (if they didn't sell some) Plus stake (how big?) in 20 companies .If 10 of them will go public and command 1/2 price of VERT
= 5 bln (assuming 50% stake)
SFE/ICG tandem could explode (in terms of market cap) right in face of CMGI and easy surpass its cap.
If CMGI will not take over SFE now -(you hear this first here) than it will be the end of their relative monopoly and competitors with 10 times better revenues will shrink their pie.
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