Well Kanunites, is this it?
As we all know the market has been pushed up by a handful of stocks (as Ralphie Makempoorer says, "so what, buy them!"). If they crumble there is no help below.
Here is a warning to the BTDers from one of the listserv gurus I listen to (Dhruv Sheth on longwaves) who, along with Armstrong (PEI) predicted that April 8th would be the end of this bull market:
With the bombshell from Compaq, the last year 4th quarter recovery in the fundamentals of the tech sector is seriously under question. The 4th quarter improvement was more akin to a wave 2 rally; or a contra trend move, in Elliott jargon. Now that the hype created by that is unlikely to be defensible, I would expect a sustained, sharp decline in the tech stocks. Internet stocks most likely would collapse from here. If the broadly defined tech sector is retreating , what is going to keep the major indices up? Financials? I doubt it. The banking sector index has had a classic wave 2 rally, and is about to sink into the abyss of 3rd wave decline. The brokers, especially the internet ones are likely to be in deep doo-doo too! So pick your stocks in tech, banking ,brokers, and internet stocks and short them. If it is too tough to select the stocks, pick the sector indices and do 6 month 15-20% out of money puts on them. The time is here , it appears to be unequivocal bear. There are no legs left for the bull. |
