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Gold/Mining/Energy : CGI Group (GIB.A) -
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To: Sal Pugliese who wrote (1154)4/12/1999 9:40:00 AM
From: The Coz  Read Replies (2) of 1673
 
Sal. It's possible that we are comparing apples with oranges.

One important variable is the number of outstanding shares. Last year (Q2) we had 57.1 million shares. This year we have about 135 million shares due to a split in May 1998.

Now. I don't know how you calculate your 350% increase in earnings. If we calculate it based on total earning, from $6.2M, total earnings would be $27.9M: 27.9-6.2= 21.7 / 6.2 = 350%.

And using a 5.5% net margin rate: $27.9M / 0.055 = $507M of revenues!

WAY OFF !!! That's a $2B run rate.

What I'm saying is that your % increase is wrong. Even if we use $24M, that's 287% increase: 24-6.2 = 17.8 / 6.2 = 287%.

Investors are looking at EPS. And on this basis, $24M = 18 cents, slightly higher than my estimate. But a reasonable optimistic estimate, on the high end!!!

I agree with you that revenues are going to be greater than last quarter. But not $400M. More in the range of $365M - $385M based on my estimated range of 15 to 17 cents (margin between 5.5% to 6%). Net earnings will be in the range of $20M to $23M.

So revenues should be up about 155% and earning 245 % compared to last year.

Bell Mobility contract as well as the Portugal contract are not factored-in the Q2 results.

Anyways, As you say. Time will tell!

See ya.
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